The following was submitted research to Dr. Jase Bernhardt and Dr. Bret Bennington of Hofstra University. I am currently working with my advisors to conduct follow-up research.
Poster
Abstract
In this decade six million people in 84 countries are living in displacement as a result of our climate crisis- a population equivalent to greater than 137 countries. This is particularly applicable in Caribbean and Pacific Island nations whose population amasses 88.2 million people. Human displacement in these regions is a response to a steady increase in natural disasters and substandard responses at federal levels such as unstable and inconsistent access to resources, potable water, and agriculture. In most cases, islands’ inhabitants face a loss of population to neighboring regions and colonial players. Tuvalu, for example, 80% of food is imported from nearby countries of Japan, New Zealand, and Australia, where much of their population is. This research seeks to answer the theory that we can reduce our need for mass displacement by evaluating our education and upbringing toward local environmental implications, identifying communal problems in the region, and increasing the use of socially uninformed sustainable engagement. Methods included a behavioral research survey and previous research conducted. This research can benefit sustainable practices and educational reforms we must adopt in the name of preservation rather than displacement. A survey was sent to citizens and diaspora members of Caribbean and Pacific small island developing states (SIDS) to evaluate their ties and inclination to act on climate in local communities. It found that there was a positive correlation between appropriate education and the will to act on community climate.
Keywords: Climate migration, Sustainability, Caribbean migration, Pacific migration, Displacement
Introduction
According to the United Nations, there are 37 member nations classified as SIDS. In the Caribbean and Pacific families of nations, there are 27. With a combined 18 overseas territories encompassing thousands of islands, cultures, and languages, these are diverse and culturally rich regions of our world. The key problem being studied in this research is migration and displacement brought about by climate change. Populations of countries in the Caribbean and Pacific make such ambitious policies and societal shifts a possible sample, and by studying climate displacement in the region, we can learn adaptation to larger scales. For example, the Caribbean island nation of Dominica boasts 72,000, while Pacific-straddled Tuvalu hosts only 11,000- as per Worldometers. Of these 45 countries and territories, only five boast populations greater than a million. While this is small, the regions offer mighty opportunities in climate migration and action research. Displacement is brought on due to reductions in resources, food, infrastructure, healthcare, and necessary systems to combat natural disasters. Simply put, people are migrating for better opportunities and access to livable means and resources. Climate migration of this magnitude brings about a loss of culture with migrating diaspora: many of which would not leave their homes under other circumstances. The loss of these populations leads to a lessened potential for SIDS as their academics are displaced. To evaluate why the population feels underprepared to combat community climate change, it should be believed that a lack of preparation by governments (Scoobie, 2017). Patterns of continued frustration towards inaction on climate in the regions contribute to the masses’ desire to relocate. Due to the common relationship between SIDS and nonrenewable energy economies, the complex implication of climate action and federal profits are often intertwined (Niles, 2013). The consideration of economic profit based on crude oils found in the Caribbean in particular could play its part in upholding education curriculums without a call to action on climate.
Literature review: Understanding climate migration Climate migration is the movement of persons or groups that leave their homes due to changes in their environment. With the increasing effects of climate change, populations are prepared to relocate their lives in search of resources, land, and opportunities elsewhere, leaving their homes due to necessity. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report states that if the planet were to increase by one-degree Celsius there would be detrimental effects that would leave many nations disadvantaged due to the increase in natural disasters and repercussions on their societies. This is particularly true in SIDS due to their limited resources in comparison with established nations. With the looming threat to health and well-being, relocation becomes imminent from nations in this standing (Hoffman et al. 2021). With the increase in climate-induced stressors, it is inevitable that we will see an equal increase in population exodus in years to come (Cashman et al., 2010). Climate damage and disparity are seen more so in rural communities of SIDS, so when considering migration the first option is often local-from a rural community to the capital or larger cities (Klep et al., 2016). In the example of Kiribati, there is a mass movement toward their capital, Tahwara. Those seeking migration also look to other nations, usually those with better preparation, infrastructure, and access to health systems. Argentina, in addition, offers a special humanitarian visa for climate refugees from lesser-developed nations in South, and Central America, and the Caribbean (Watson, 2022).
In the next two decades, we can anticipate upward of 200 million climate refugees resulting from displacement (Wallace-Wells, 2019). This number equates to more than all but seven countries in the world.
Climate Migration in SIDS In the Caribbean, climate change causes the need for migration due to the lack of available resources and the loss of land. Many SIDS in the Caribbean are formed of dominantly bedrock landscapes. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) states that higher increases in rain and stormwater runoff cause permanent damage to the islands’ sedimentary foundations. This is set to increase as suggested by climate models evaluating what we can expect in the coming decades (Stennet-Brown et al., 2019). This also affects the quality of water available in Caribbean SIDS. A lack of water availability can correlate with migration to surrounding nations in years to come (Cashman et al., 2010). We see similar examples of these effects in Pacific SIDS like Vanuatu (Perumal, 2018). Perumal’s research suggests that local governments’ failures to act on climate lead to a sense of frustration and lack of faith in the nation’s ability to combat climate change. At the time of this research, Vanuatu is the country most prone to the climate migration crisis. Perumal suggests that climate migration in this region is also inevitable. Another cause of migration in SIDS can be directly linked to disease and the ability of communities to respond to them, as we see in the example of Covid-19 in the Pacific (Chan, et al., 2022). As global systems continue to allow for melting ice caps, there is a fair that comes with possible diseases we are not prepared for. Effects of the climate crisis on Populations
Oftentimes, those in rural areas of SIDS will relocate to their capital cities, as seen in the case of Kiribatians moving to Tawara for health resources and education (Klepp, S. Herbeck J. 2016). In other cases, many choose to relocate to countries better prepared to face the challenges of the crisis. The example of Tuvaluan communities in New Zealand, a regional power to their island chain, is offered in 1,001 Voices on Climate Change (Lockwood, 2022). SIDS that will disappear inevitably with inaction include the Solomon Islands, Palau, Micronesia, Fiji, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Cook Islands, French Polynesia, and the Marshall Islands (Mettler, L. 2022). These are the examples located in the Pacific and do not include those in the Caribbean, or off the coasts of Africa. The loss of population in these countries carries long-term negative ramifications on their societies and human capital, including a loss of culture and identity. As generations are further removed from their ancestral lands, they are more aligned with their families’ newer surroundings (Brinkenhoff, 2015). In both regions, it is estimated that 800 languages are spoken, and these as well as the cultures they accompany are endangered. Long-term losses of culture include a phenomenon known as the “brain drain” where many nations’ populations are migrating for academic and professional opportunities. Student’s seeking tertiary-level education are often inclined to pick a program based on their preference for climate (Fan, 2016). With increasing temperatures a prevalent feature in the regions, climate migration may only be continued.
Why does it matter? Climate change brings about destruction and acts in the thievery of a country’s potential. SIDS are prone to the necessity for climate migration due to the lesser resources they commonly possess, but this can be swung if favorable policies are applied. Due to their smaller size, there
are opportunities to promote nationalist regimes that are often applied at smaller levels. Though we face a humanitarian crisis in the form of exodus, promoting healthier education and access to knowledge can prepare a population for the crisis, and prevent the attitude of escaping-not aiding- one’s home. Climate research In Okinawa, Japan, suggested that there are subjects of climate migration from smaller islands in the region. This supports the idea that climate change affects not only traditionally underdeveloped nations (Kakazu, 2012). He uses the example of governance in this region to the advantage of SIDS in the Pacific. Due to their smaller stature in geo-politics, this could allow them to promote self-favoring policies. SIDS in both the Caribbean and Pacific should take these words in stride, and a key way to propose policy and mitigation is through more aggressive education curriculums on climate.
Research, methods & timeline By December there were identified sources and a direction for research. Readings lead to the hypothesis that there is a positive correlation between climate education and the inclination to act in local communities. A survey was designed to identify the degree of relationship between the sample and the chosen regions, whether or not they were educated in said regions, their work involved climate, their familiarity with local climate concerns, and their inclination to act if knowledge was evident and available. The survey was nine questions long and would take participants 5-10 minutes on an estimate. The chosen sample would be Caribbean and Pacific students at Hofstra, and other universities with relevant diaspora. Via cultural organizations, the survey was sent to universities in the U.S., England, Australia, and New Zealand, and organizations in both regions. Participants would first be prompted with a form of consent and upon their signature they would begin. An IRB proposal was approved due to the nature of this
research: a systematic investigation of climate migration to ensure that ethical surveys are upheld. This research was research confirmed as ethical, and questions in the data gathering can serve their purpose. The survey would begin with the presentation of a consent form. Questions proceeded to identify citizens and diaspora members of the Caribbean and Pacific communities while evaluating their: relation to the region, education on the local climate crisis, and their knowledge and inclination to act on local climate issues. The data sought to suggest whether or not education on the issues can serve as a curb to the need for displacement. Independent variables of the research include the education levels of local occurrences in an academic or extracurricular setting and the availability of resources on SIDS. Dependent variables included the rates of displacement/migration on respective islands. Mediating variables include those proven resistant to progress such as companies that are located on SIDS that benefit from displacement, or its causes. A confounding variable of this study will be the rates of affluence on SIDS: different socioeconomic classes will have as many different ways to respond to their immediate experiences of the climate crisis.
Results At the time of this report, the sample sits at (N=48). Upon analysis of the data the hypothesis, H1 was confirmed. With 91% of participants stating their inclination would improve with further climate education in local communities, a chi-square test offered me a two-tailed p<0.0001. This is extremely statistically significant and can lead to further research in that department. An estimated 40% of respondents had migrated from a SID, while 16% were based on their respective islands. The survey successfully garnered participation from both Caribbean and
Pacific island nations, as well as diaspora in academic circles. 69% of participants were aware of climate change on their representative islands, with “an increase in natural disasters.” at 55% ranking first in recognisability. This was followed by rising tides at 52%, and increasing temperatures at 50%. 20% of participants were educated at a primary level on their SID, 31% at a secondary level, and 25% at a tertiary level. 20% did not receive any form of schooling on the SID of their heritage or migration. Despite this, only 43% of participants attested to the inclusion of community climate education in class or at an extracurricular level. An estimated 30% of participants were active in climate-forward solutions in their communities but 41% were not. Discussion While data gathering is not closed, 48 participants were seldom a huge sample. Biases in the sample could have included proximity to academia as 56% confirmed through their answers. While this survey was circulated on cultural forums, via email, and through social media exchanges with academic organizations, it could lean in favor of an educated perspective, which is not entirely reflective of the afflicted population in the Caribbean and Pacific region. With education and access in mind, the sample may not have been able to access those without the internet or a device to complete it on. This is a customary concern when researching samples that contain many in lower SES standings. Despite heavy involvement from academia, the study did not seek to identify participants’ majors or career industries. At least a quarter of participants were enrolled in or completed tertiary-level education, and this could suggest why much of the sample was versed and active on climate change in their communities. While the survey attracted a sample of 40% migrants, it did not specify whether or not the cause of migration was due to climate stressors from a SID. While there was participation from both regions, the majority of
data favored Caribbean participants than Pacific. Both of these may have skewed potential findings and any succeeding studies should include these points of data for meta-analyzing. Questions that arose in the collection of the findings included whether or not there would be an inclination to return if a participant did migrate. It is important to note that the survey did not feature questions on whether or not those educated in hosting nations favored nonrenewable economies, or whether SIDS of focus heavily relied on nonrenewable economies. These are attributes that could stifle a hike in climate education due to traditional ties between industries. The majority of participants did testify to an increase in a will to act with increased knowledge, and this was more than had been previously exposed at 58%. What was not evaluated in the survey was one’s will to learn about community climate concerns in a non-academic setting, should one be unable to attend formal schooling. In any future research, this should be addressed as people in lower socioeconomic communities are often not afforded the same access to education. Further curiosities include one’s will to purposefully return to their SID affiliate with a career or activism in community action in mind. Initially, would many not be willing to relocate once more be interested in finding an arrangement that would allow them activism anyways?
Future Studies In search of external validity for H1, further research should be conducted to answer questions generated by these findings. Specifically, now that this research can positively theorize there is a correlation between education and action, there should be a focus on one or two islands- in particular, specific communities. In applying an increase in climate education to selected communities, we can assess their improved or stagnant climate-forward behaviors as a dependent variable. As suggested in the discussion, this research provides an opportunity to
evaluate whether the potential sample specifically favors climate action in local communities, or on a global scale- all attributes that can determine the will to migrate. Any future studies would need the support of communities’ local governments, monetary funding for curriculum design and implementation, as well as staffing for conduct and data gathering. In constantly adjusting and improving a future program, we can then take any positive findings and apply them to other affected communities within the set criteria. To rightfully assess this data surveys, and interviews would need to be designed in an equally accessible way for a potential sample- that would eradicate favoring only those with access to personal or professional technologies. Future studies should seek to reach out to diaspora and migrants from the specific selected communities, and by including their data researchers can evaluate whether there would be an inclination to return should climate opportunities be available.
Conclusion In conclusion, climate change affects all countries but in particular SIDS in the Caribbean, and Pacific. At this current trajectory, there will be upward of 200 million climate refugees- many of which will be from these red-zoned countries. This study sought to evaluate a positive relationship between an increase in climate education and an increase in community climate action. Via a survey, H1 was upheld and this allows an opportunity for further research. 91% of participants agreed, and should we further our understanding of this research, we can propose education curriculums in the Caribbean and Pacific regions that can reduce the need for climate displacement in already smaller nations. By accomplishing a strive in climate education and migration research SIDS can embrace an opportunity for national growth without the risk of losing their populations and cultures to an avoidable crisis. As well as the lessons on climate,
reform in education can improve the quality of healthcare and innovation on SIDS, and further research should explore these ideas.
Figures.
Figure 1. H1 Accepted. 91% of participants (p<0.0001) would be inclined to act on climate issues with an increase in climate education in their respective communities.
Figure 2. An increase in natural disasters was the most recognizable feature of climate change in Caribbean and Pacific Island nations.
Figure 3. N=48, with 40% of participants being current migrants from or diaspora to Caribbean and Pacific SIDS.
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